Polling conducted by Essential Research on December 12-16 across five Queensland rural electorates shows candidates from Katter's Australian Party (KAP) can win four out of those five seats and that coal seam gas is a major concern across these electorates.
The five seats were Beaudesert, Dalrymple, Mulgrave, Nanango and Condamine with only Condamine showing the KAP with a low vote.
Both Katter's Australian Party and the Greens have strong pro-farming and anti-coal seam gas policies.
Coal seam gas registered as a major concern with many voters with only factors such as the economy, hospitals and infrastructure registering higher.
Lock the Gate Alliance president, Drew Hutton, said the poll showed that the issue of the impact of mining on farm land and communities, and particularly coal seam gas, would push a vote for the KAP high enough in many areas to get its candidates across the line in the election due on March 24.
"The electorates of Dalrymple, Mulgrave and Beaudesert are all good for Bob Katter's Party, although in each case, his candidates would need preferences from Labor, the Greens or independents to win on a two-party preferred basis.
"In Nanango, the anti-CSG vote is split 14%-14% between the KAP candidate, Carl Rackeman, and high-profile anti-gas independent, John Dalton. A preference swap between those two candidates would put that seat up for grabs."
It is also suspected that other rural seats like Mt Isa and Callide would see high votes for KAP candidates.
The Essential Media poll also showed the Greens doing well with a statewide vote of 11 per cent but their vote is concentrated in the metropolitan and south-east areas where they will find it difficult to win seats. Their preferences will be crucial, however, in quite a few of these seats.